War on Iran: options, strategies and outcomes

Posted on February 29, 2012


nuclear iranThis is something I discovered online, a brief analysis of possible war on Iran, and how it could possibly go forward.

Military specialists on Middle East analyzed the various options for a military operation against Iran, and according to them, there are two scenarios.

FIRST SCENARIO. USA, Israel and possibly other NATO countries launch missile strikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, however the targets would be objects of air defense, missile launchers, command centers of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards of Iran), etc.

Within a few days, the operation would be able to throw Iran’s nuclear program years back, however it will also lead to intense terrorist acts in many states. Another thing that is important is that in this scenario, there will be no more IAEA visits to Iran, and the Islamic Republic will likely to come out of the NPT.

SECOND SCENARIO. A MORE LIKELY ONE. A prolonged military operation, without the introduction of troops. The course of the operation may be different, Iranian authorities may be presented with an ultimatum. If its denied, the operation will continue. In the end, Iran will see its military industry, civilian industry completely ruined.

Either way, if this happens, a lot of Iranians will be thinking about fleeing the country. Good question is – where will they go? There are some allegations that Iranians will not cross borders, and the rush to the cities in provincial areas. This is highly unlikely to be a large displacement, since if we take a good look at the map of Iran, its clear that there are lots of deserted regions/areas, not suitable for any refugees. There is also an opinion, that refugees can flee to such countries as Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Arab countries, the republics of the Caucasus.

In total, the consequences of military operations can be catastrophic. The “Hezbollah” and “Hamas” groups will become more active than ever, which is additional headache for everyone.

In this context, its interesting – what is worse? Consequences of a long-term chaos in the region and beyond, or nuclear weapon-armed Iran with the imminent collapse of the regime of nuclear non-proliferation, the emergence of new nuclear states in the region and beyond, with quite likely the real use of nuclear weapons… As you’ve probably quessed – discussion here remains open.