Russian experts: Iran does have nuclear weapon, expect the worst

Posted on February 29, 2012

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iran nuclear programWeekly “Military-Industrial Courier” publishes a number of statements made at the “round table” of the Club World Economics and International Affairs, Department of World Economy and International Affairs HSE and the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.

This particular topic was “Possible new war in the Persian Gulf”. Russian experts expressed various of their own opinions on Iran and its nuclear program, some of which are really interesting.

One of the experts, Alexei Arbatov presented a detailed report on Iran’s nuclear program. According to it, Tehran has been developing the nuclear program ever since 1967, with the help of the U.S.

The Iranians have created almost a full nuclear fuel cycle, including power for the isotopic enrichment of uranium. According to the World Nuclear Association, it has been planned to install 54,000 centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear plant. A large amount of enriched material has already been collected there.

“Expecting the worst”

The expert notes that Iran, most likely does have the nuclear weapon. Possibly it was received from Pakistan or North Korea, a long time ago. And the program that Tehran is realizing today, can be assessed as a legalization of the nuclear weapon they already have. The more time passes, the more material Iran can enrich, and the harder it will be to solve the problem.

The West and Israel believe that Iranian government pursues this tactic of “buying as much time as possible”, so the nuclear program could be realized in full. From this point of view, it is safe to say that military solution to the problem increases.

The expert noted that the media, which is full of “expert speculations” about how the events will further unfold, does not help the situation. He added that its important to count on the sides’ common sense, since if the war takes off, everyone will get hurt.

Russian expert said that the war is beneficial to some financial, economic and military-undustrial circles. He said the war is beneficial to those, who construct their geopolitics against China’s interests, adding that Russia will also get seriously hurt in case of war.

The rest of the experts expressed different opinions, which I am listing below:

– China is not interested in a new war, however it is interested in EU embargo on Iranian oil, as it increases China’s chances for buying oil for a cheaper price. On the other hand, China seems to be already looking for alternative sources of oil in the Middle East.

– The U.S., Israel and EU are not interested in war against Iran either, and there are reasons for that. The U.S. does not need a new war right before the presidential elections, as it will make Obama’s position even more difficult than it already is. If Israel, for example, attacks Iran, it will cause the anti-Israeli sentiments around the world.

– Iran is bluffing, when claims it can and will close the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. will not allow Iran to lock down the Strait. Even if Iran does close it, it won’t last for long. Iran, in its turn, is unlikely to seriously consider this option.

– The only thing, that can actually prevent a new war in the Gulf is – a common position on Iran from all members of UN Security Coucil.

– One cannot exclude the fact that Iranian government already knows the approximate dates when the nuclear weapon can be ready.

– Iranian society is rather pluralistic. It stands united, protecting its nuclear program, without getting into details which part of this nuclear program is civil, and which is military.

– Just recently, an information appeared, that Israel told the U.S. that it will notify it of an armed attack on Iran, 12 hours prior, and the U.S. will not be able to do anything about that. If the attack happens, Iran will respond, and in that case, the U.S. will support Israel.

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